As before, the economy has run out of steam in growth terms. The weakening trend of 2025 has persisted through end-year, with a further deceleration in credit, falling construction and flattish consumer spending.

But still no drama. Oil exports are still flowing despite sanctions efforts, the current account is in surplus, and fiscal deficits are not really an issue in terms of funding or monetization pressures. I.e., as before there are few signs that the war effort is "seriously" hurting the country on the macro front.