India is now really booming at home. Local activity has shot up sharply over the past quarter, including credit, sales volumes, materials usage and output, and our rough growth index is now at 10% y/y. All else equal, we would really, really want to get back into the equity market.

But external factors still give us pause. Exports are going nowhere, net FDI inflows have all but disappeared, gold purchases are still a source of pressure, broad import demand will likely be rising ... and now we have oil price shocks. With the rupee still on the back foot, we'll wait another few months to see how global factors play out.