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Does China Need a New Zhu Rongji?
Does China need a "new Zhu Rongji" to clean up the industrial economy? After all, the popular perception is that the country is awash in manufacturing overcapacity (which it now exports abroad).
The answer to that question would be no ... but it does need a new Zhu to clean up the real estate sector and stop the local government debt spiral. The reality is that excess manufacturing capacity is limited to a few key areas, and China is not gaining industrial export market share. This doesn't mean that the economy is "fine", however – just that the real problems are elsewhere, in the ongoing real estate disaster and ever-increasing fiscal and quasi-fiscal debt ratios, both of which would very much benefit from a more proactive Zhu-style cleanup.
How To Think About Emerging Markets (2026 Edition)
An opinionated guide to emerging markets
What is an Emerging Market? (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 1)What's Wrong With EM? (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 2)
Who Makes It, Who Doesn't (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 3)
Is Globalization Over? (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 4)
Four EM Growth Fallacies (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 5)
An Austrian Primer: Savings, Debt and Default (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 6)
Life After China (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 7)
Macro and EM Equities (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 8)
Macro and EM Debt (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 9)
Macro and EM Currencies (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 10)
How To Think About China (2025 Edition)
... and an opinionated guide to China
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 1)A State Economy or a Market Economy? (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 2)
The End of the Miracle (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 3)
Property Boom and Property Bust (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 4)
Debt, Banks and the Budget (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 5)
The Future of the Renminbi and the Closing of China (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 6)
The Aging Crisis (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 7)
How to Follow Macro Policy (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 8)
Why Haven't I Made Money? (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 9)
