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Brazil Keeps Us In ... and In
There's no change to the cocktail of weak growth/sky-high rates/improving external balance ... all of which keeps us in BRL carry and fixed income. Copom has been cutting rates, but barely, and the jump in oil prices will likely forestall a more serious effort while further supporting the value of the currency. This is not a particularly great environment for equities - but it is the best of all possible worlds for FX carry, and we see no reason to exit duration fixed income either.
Brazil Keeps Us In ... and In (PDF)
How To Think About Emerging Markets (2026 Edition)
An opinionated guide to emerging markets
What is an Emerging Market? (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 1)What's Wrong With EM? (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 2)
Who Makes It, Who Doesn't (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 3)
Is Globalization Over? (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 4)
Four EM Growth Fallacies (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 5)
How To Think About China (2025 Edition)
... and an opinionated guide to China
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 1)A State Economy or a Market Economy? (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 2)
The End of the Miracle (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 3)
Property Boom and Property Bust (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 4)
Debt, Banks and the Budget (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 5)
The Future of the Renminbi and the Closing of China (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 6)
The Aging Crisis (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 7)
How to Follow Macro Policy (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 8)
Why Haven't I Made Money? (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 9)
